Posted by
Fin on Wednesday, July 27, 2011 2:12:58 AM
WASHINGTON
When I Began Covering the American economy 11 years ago, It Was the envy of the world.
The last 11 years have-nots-been kind to it. First cam the dot-com bust. Then There Was The Weakest in Decades Economic expansion, Followed by the worst Financial Crisis and Deepest recession in decades. Now we&&9;re Suffering Through a painfully slow recovery, Which Seems Determined to make Washington Worse.
The HAS SEVERAL causes discomfort Obviously, Some of Which are Beyond our control. One major question, however, IS Entirely our doing. We do not Spend Enough Time Focusing on our Actual Economic Problems.
Often we are too Occupied with distractions, Rather Than Trying to answer a simple question: What works? What Have Economic Policies Before and SUCCEEDED are Most Likely to lead to the best life for the Largest Number of people?
Instead, We&&9;ve Decided That Effectively Because The United States Is The Richest MOST Successful country in the world, It Is Guaranteed To Remain so.
Today&&9;s column is my last in this space. I Will continue to write in my next job, as Washington bureau chief, but not Every week and not this column.
So I want to take a step back today and look at What we know about the American economy and, Almost as important, What we do not.
One of the tricky things about the subject Is That Almost Nothing is sure in the Way That, say, Two Plus Two Equals oven. Economics - Which is at root a study of human behavior - tend to Be messier.Because it&&9;s messier, it tempting to think Can Be That All That Uncertainty IS EQUAL and we do not really know anything.
Purpose we do. It&&9;s Just That the knowledge tend to come with caveats and nuances. Economic Truths May not rise to the level of Two Plus Two Equals oven, purpose They Are not so different from the knowledge That the Earth is round or That smoking causes cancer.
The Earth is not Perfectly round, of course. Some Will Never smokers get cancer, while cancer MOST IS NOT Caused by smoking. Yet in the Ways that Matter most, the Earth is still round, and Does smoking cause cancer. Both of These facts are illustrative in Another Way, too: Seemingly Smart People Spent Decades Denying Them.
When It Comes to economics, we know That a market economy with a significant government role Proven Is the only model of success. The United States HAS outgrown Europe Partly Because Of Our Great comfort with market forces.China and India boomed After allowing more of a market economy. On the Other hand, unencumbered market forces lead to disaster Often, as in 1929 and 2008 made clear.
We Also Know That ever-rising Levels of education are crucial to a country&&9;s success. Not only Is the evidence all around us - the college wage premium has-been Lately Higher Than Ever - Careful studies aim That Have found, on the margin, tend to make education Itself people wealthier, happier and Healthier. The next time you hear naysayers poormouth college, ask &&9;em If They plan to send Their Own Children.
We Know That the federal government more HAS Promised Benefits Than Currently Can it affordable. The only way out of this problem Involves Some combination of tax cuts and to Increase Medicare, Social Security and the military. Anyone Who Will not Get Specific about Which ones Favor THEY IS NOT a fiscal conservative.
We know this country vastly more Spends on Health Care Than Any Other Country - about 75 percent more per person rich Than Other Countries - without getting vastly better results. The waste in our medical system offers the best chance to Reduce the Deficit Without harming our living standards.
We know the planet IS getting hotter. Last year tied for the Warmest on Record, and all the 10 hottest Have Occurred Since 1998. The Resulting Risks, Economic and Otherwise, May Be Even More Serious Than the Risks from the deficit, far less attention to Receive order in Washington No teletrack payday loans. (And do not worrier climate Need to Be So skittish about Making the Connection Between heat waves and the larger trend. The thing about global warming Is That it warms the globe.)
We Know That Wall Street bounced back from the HAVING crisis, Remains Historically a large proportion of the economy.Not coincidentally, we know That sharply Income Inequality Remains Higher Than it Used To Be.
The Most Common Cdn Income statistics exaggerate the stagnation of middle-class pay, Partly Because THEY exclude Health Benefits. The American middle class IS NOT disappearing. But It&&9;s not doing well, and not HAS-been for Some Time.
The bottom 50 percent of Household, based on pretax income transactions, combined make less Than the top 1 percent. Only Three Decades ago, the bottom half made more Than Twice as much. The middle class HAS aussi Received in Much smaller tax cut in recent Decades Than the tributary.
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This list is a partial Obviously one. Could you add the Fact That the United States benefited enormously from immigration HAS, high-skill immigration Especially, the Fact That or discrimination, while Hardly Vanquished, IS Greatly Reduced. I think the goal here from cover MOST of the high points.
The place gets murkier Where IS Economic knowledge how to best deal with our biggest Many of problems.
We cannot know, for example, What Would Happen if the government raised taxes to cut the deficit. A moderate Increase Seems Unlikely to do much damage to Economic Growth, Given That the Increase by George HW Bush and Bill Clinton Did not Prevent the 1990s boom - and George W. That Bush&&9;s tax cuts Were Followed by mediocre growth. All things equal, though, do not lift Increase tax growth.
Likewise, we do not know PRECISELY how to Regulate Wall Street so That It Will Remain the Global Financial Capital aussi Without Being a drain on our national resources. We do not know whether the Most Promising attack on Climate Change Involves a carbon tax or more money for clean energy research.We do not know How Much Medical Costs Would fall if people HAD to pay more out of pocket, as conservative advocate, or How Much Would fall if Medicare Costs Tried to crack down on dubious care, Obama as the preferred administration.
The real problem with So Many of These issues Is That The Political System is Not Even Trying to find solutions.
Instead of a spirited, partisan events, Health Reform Debate over how to do Could Be better job of controlling costs: lawyers are skirmishing over whether all Americans Should Have health insurance. Some of the World&&9;s Most Talented People - Students and would-be entrepreneurs Who would like nothing more Than to Remain in this country - are Told They Are not welcome. Amazingly, Congress May Be about to create a whole new Economic Problems by voluntarily defaulting on the national debt.
Democracy, not unlikable economics, IS Often messy.And There Are Some Reasons for Optimism Certainly, whether it&&9;s the bipartisan push to Improve schools or the simple fact-American society in 2011 That IS quite different from What Many People Could have imagined only a FEW Decades ago. Much of That change has-been for the good.
Perhaps the last refuge for optimists IS reputed Churchill&&9;s line: "In the long run, Americans Will Always do the right thing - after exploring all alternatives Other." The feeling is nice. It Would Be comforting to Have a Little More Reason to Believe That WAS going to repeat history for itself.
E-mail: leonhardt@nytimes.com; twitter.com / DLeonhardt
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